Economic Ramble

Politics and humor not appropriate for CEO Economic Update http://pbp.typepad.com/economy/

Thursday, May 15, 2008

"Somebody pulled me off the golf course and told me giving up golf would be a good idea"

Obermann tells President Bush that Iraq is not about his golf game.

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/05/14/countdown-special-comment-to-president-bush-shut-the-hell-up/

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

0 for 3 so far. Republicans have been losing the open seats to Democrats in the three special elections held so far.

The first one was an open seat in LA which a Dem took a R seat held for 20 years! By Rep. Richard Baker (R). That district had voted 59% for Bush in 2004.

Republicans dropped $500,000 but were outspent 2-1, but based on Congressional and Senate fundraising efforts to date, Republicans better get used to being outspent, because they are badly trailing the Democratic fundraising machine.

Next was the big one. Danny Hastert the Speaker of the House leaves and R's can't hold onto his Illinois seat. Democratic challenger wins by 6 points and against a Republican challenger who spent $2.3 million of his own money on the race, and the national party spent another $1 million.

Most recently and most shockingly, Democrats beat Republicans in Mississippi. Mississippi !! This was a district that voted 62% for Bush in 2004. And the GOP dumped $2 million into the race, slightly outspending Dems and still lost by 8 points. Also Cheney, Huckabee, McCain, Laura and George Bush all participated on the R effort.

The Democrats are now 3-for-3 in these red district special elections: Along with Travis Childers’ win in MS-01, Bill Foster took Denny Hastert’s old IL seat, and Dan Cazayoux took the solidly red 6th district in LA.


When 3 open solidly Republican seats turn Democratic, it's a sure indication of the mood of the country.

Over 80% of the nation is upset with the economy (#1 predictor)
Incumbent party has a unpopular (30% approval rating) President (tough to overcome)
We are mired in an unpopular war that nearly 2/3 of the country wish to end
Primary voters are voting 2-1 Democrat, fundraising is 2-1 as well
Vast majority of new registered voters are Democrat
R's have held the White House for 8 years, voters like a change (tested as statistically significant in econometric modeling)


2008 is shaping to be a historic landslide for the Dems this fall